Low stocks have limited impact in the off-season, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in August
SMM News on August 4th: Aluminum prices have almost risen continuously since the beginning of the second quarter. The gravity center of aluminum futures in July has continued to move upward. Although July 16 recorded the largest daily decline since April, it is supported by fundamentals. Subsequently, the continuous increase mode was opened again, and it rose to 14,800 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The traditional off-season effect of this summer is not obvious. With low inventories and the recent recovery of foreign consumption, there is limited room for aluminum prices to drop.
SMM believes that aluminum prices fluctuated strongly in August and there is limited room for fall. Although the overseas epidemic continues, the overall trading atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period, and foreign consumption has also improved significantly. Yesterday data showed that the PMI of Europe and the United States returned to the expansion range. From a fundamental point of view, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots is still at a low level, and it is difficult to reverse the structure of futures and futures spreads due to a small accumulation of inventory. Coupled with the acceptable downstream processing rate, the short-term trend of aluminum prices is still volatile. In terms of imported scrap aluminum, it is expected that high overseas prices will make it difficult for relevant traders to replenish overseas stocks before the liberalization of imports. In addition, the rise in domestic scrap aluminum prices will raise the cost of secondary aluminum enterprises, and domestic ADC12 prices may continue to rise slightly.